There’s an App for That

With the explosion of mobile apps has been an explosion of mobile app stores.  Along with the popular iStore, software developers are being wooed to develop apps for various devices and platforms from companies ranging from silicon chip providers to telecom service providers.   In fact, there are many more “opportunities” than are worth exploiting.

On both sides of the spectrum are false expectations of success.   Just because an app is created does not mean its creator will become rich and famous.  Similarly, just because an app store has been created does not mean the masses will flock to it.

There are a number of things that feed into the popularity of apps.  First, the platform has to be desirable. While there are huge markets for users of iOS and Android devices, the same cannot be said about Meego devices.

Apps must work well and look good, whether they’re games or business applications and they need to address an actual user requirment or desire.  Apps need to be marketed well by the developer, discoverable in the app store, and publicly advocated by their users.  Pricing and many other factors also come into play.

Two years ago at a Plug and Play Technology Center event targeted at venture capitalists, I heard a sobering statistic:  Of the apps developed for the Apple iStore, 99 percent are no longer used after the first 30 days and within three months, 99 percent of the one percent are not used.  So much for easy fame and fortune.

Apply the one-percent-of-one-percent statistics to the app stores that have little or no traction and the numbers look even worse.  Even when an app store is robust, there is no guarantee of success.

At the AnDevCon conference yesterday, Don Kellogg, director of Telecom Research and Insight at Nielsen said the average user of an Android smartphone is engaged with his or her handset for an average of one hour, 25 minutes, 14 seconds per day.  For simplicity, we’ll call the average user “Dave”.

This is how Dave spends his time, on average, during a one-week period:

• 40%  Facebook
• 28% games
• 12% Internet
• 9% messaging
• 7% pre-loaded apps
• 3% phone (voice calls)
• 1% [e]mail
• 1% third-party apps

Notice the third-party app statistic.  Again, the number one comes up.  But wait!  There’s more…

Analytics firm Canalys estimated that 300 million smartphones shipped in 2010, worldwide.  ABI Research stated while Android market share outpaces iOS 44% to 31%, Apple app downloads beat Android 2:1.  The firm also estimates global app downloads will grow to 29 billion by the end of 2011, compared to only 9 billion in 2010, fueled by the worldwide adoption of smartphones which is expected to grow 46% in 2011.

Nielsen also stated that Apple app downloads beat Android 2:1 and that Apple users are more willing to pay for their apps.  For every two free apps, an iStore customer will pay for one.  By comparison, Android Market and Blackberry App World customers download 3.5 free apps for everyone they buy.

It turns out free can be a great strategy depending on what you’re doing.  If you have a premium product with rich functionality, offering a free “lite” version can be an effective path to upgrades so long as the free product is good enough for users to want more (not crippleware).  Free has also proven to be a good strategy for publishers and brands who want to interact with customers through a new channel.  (However, getting customers to pay for a product that was once free is difficult unless the paid version offers more.)

Bottom line, apps are hot and they’re about to get hotter with the proliferation of tablets, smart phones, and wearable devices such as those from WIMM, but only a small percentage will make it to Killer App status.

10 Reasons to Hate Technology

I’m surrounded by technophobes on one hand and geeks on the other.  The former are friends and family members.  The latter are friends and colleagues.  All of us get fed up with technology from time to time, although the reactions differ:  The geeks try to solve their own problems and often succeed while the technophobes lament they never should have strayed to the dark side in the first place.  Me, I’m somewhere in between trying all the usual diagnostics first, sifting through the clutter on technical support sites, and then contacting technical support or hiring help when necessary.  I must admit I do get a sense of satisfaction when technical support representatives repeat my attempts and get the same results.

Every now and then you may be cruising through Yet Another Day and everything is fine until the Black Screen of Death appears on your computer, a peripheral is seemingly non-responsive, or you can’t do anything because of service interruptions.  You get the picture.  In honor of those moments I’ve come up with a top 10 list of things I find annoying.  If you have others, please add them!

#10. Slower than advertised network speeds. There’s little excuse for dial-up performance on a high speed connection but it’s totally possible to feel caught in a time warp, albeit temporarily.  Sure, Windows computers in particular can make a network connection appear to be slow so try a link test to be sure.

#9: Smartphone soft keyboards. Some soft keyboards may be better than others but when they’re bad, they’re awful. That’s why text phones tend to have hard keyboards. Try handing an original Blackberry Storm to some poor soul and tell her to compose a text. Try not to laugh.

#8: Model-specific adapters. I have an entire box of these just in case. How about you?

#7: PC/laptop boot times. Since the dawn of computers it’s been possible to pick up a phone and get a dialtone and yet it can take several minutes for a laptop or PC to boot. Now there are tablet computers that are “instant on.”   The phones and tablets have got it right.  I’ve been advocating Instant On ever since I discovered Windows in 1989.  Seriously.

#6: Wireless dead zones: “Can you hear me now?” No. I can’t surf or update my status either. The new personal hot spots like MiFi from Verizon are greatfor networking but they are apparently not infallable. One device can provide wi-fi connections for up to five PCs via 3G and in some cases 4G…assuming you’re not in a dead zone.

#5: Overly sensitive touchpads. Make sure you love the touchpad on your laptop or netbook with all your heart before buying it. If you’ve never had trouble with a touchpad you may not perceive that any problems could possibly exist. I had that view until I picked up a Dell Inspiron as a backup travel computer (instead of a netbook). It does all kinds of wild and crazy things that seem to have no basis in logic and worse are extremely counterproductive.  At least some problems can be rectified by adjusting the touchpad settings but still, this is the first touchpad (and laptop) I love to hate.

#4: Driver woes. It happens. All of a sudden your sound card doesn’t work or you plug in your camera and nothing happens. Maybe one day you just can’t print. Quite often the problem can be solved by uninstalling and reinstalling the driver (there is probably an update on the manufacturer’s website if your computer does not automatically locate it). That’s easy enough to do and should solve the problem. “Should” is the operative word because even tech support dudes give up when the reinstall and command-line voodoo don’t work.

#3: Automatic updates. Just when you need it least, software updates happen. Sometimes you can delay the reboot for as long as you like but in some cases the software is going to force an imminent reboot. Productivity is key. Intefering with user productivity is a bad idea. Luckily, more now happens in “background mode” thanks to a mound of user complaints.  Keep ’em coming.

#2: Viruses, spyware, and malware: The problem with computer and internet security is that the black hats (hackers) are always a step ahead of the white hats (good guys) which means security software can only protect you from known forms of attacks.

#1:  Technology changes all the time.  Change is what makes working in the high tech industry fun.  Change is also what can drive you nuts as a user.  The minute you buy the “latest and greatest” you can be sure the next generation is in the works ready to take yet another bite out of your wallet in 6 – 9 months, give or take.   Now consider just how many products we “must have.”  In a related vein, consider how many services we must have because face it:  Most modern hardware isn’t worth much without add-on software and/or services.

I can say this with confidence:  Whatever number came to mind is likely fewer than will occur to you a year or two from now.

Do you hate technology yet?  Me neither.  I love it…most of the time…until it disrupts my day.

Mobility: From Luggable to Huggable

I have a confession to make:  I’m in love again.  Everytime technology takes a quantum leap toward my personal lifestyle I get excited all over again.

My first introduction to “mobility” was the Apple Macintosh.  They were called “luggable” computers because they weighed about 17 pounds and were very bulky. But, if you didn’t want to go into the office on the weekend, you didn’t mind hauling the thing home.  Of course, the computer wasn’t networked to anything but that was OK because we had sneakernet (floppy drives).

I was not one of the early cell phone adopters mainly because they were the size of a lunchbox, which I thought was ridiculous and apparently so did everyone else.  It wasn’t long before cell phones became handheld devices, ala the kind of handheld device Gordon Gekko received when he checked out of jail in Wall Street 2.

I never liked pagers because like faxes they assumed priority (like IM does today).  Of course, I had one anyway.  In Silicon Valley there are just certain things one has to own.

Next came the laptops.  I was in the middle of this particular rage because I had a laptop client.  All kinds of computer manufacturers were jumping on the bandwagon, many of which failed but the choice was good for consumers.  What was bad was the technology.  The nickel cadmium (NiCad) batteries didn’t last more than a couple of hours and the screen technology wasn’t all that good.  The laptops were heavy, sub-10 pounds but still…try walking a trade show floor with one one of those!  No thanks.

In the meantime, I kept upgrading my cell phones to the newer, sleeker models.  My favorite was a Motorola flip phone which looked like a Star Trek communicator.  Later, of course, I discovered smartphones but because I was a Verizon subscriber, I chose a Blackberry Storm because Apple iPhones were not available at the time.  The upside was, I had a signal wherever I went which my AT&T iPhone friends envied.  Of course, the smart keyboard on the Blackberry Storm is so bad its impractical.  Now, thanks to Android, I have even cooler choices and Verizon offers iPhones.

I must say, although I was also in the middle of the whole netbook craze as a client was working on those and several other device types I began questioning exactly how many devices I personally needed.  Sure, the netbook was easier to travel with because it was lighter but I still preferred the fuller functionality of my laptop. 

My dreams came true when the tablets hit the market because…well, I’m a scribe.  They’re instant on, meaning you don’t have too wait for them to boot, and I can make use of all my existing skills – typing, gesturing, drawing, and my illegible scribbling which others generously refer to as handwriting.

As willing as I was to lug an Apple Macintosh, I’d much rather hug a tablet.

And what I like even more having worked in the software space from productivity applications to enterprise applications to mobile apps is the accelerating rate of  innovation that’s translating to user experience coolness.

Being a consumer and industry observer is fun.  On one hand I hear about “visions” and technology directions before they happen and then I have the benefit of watching those visions unfold into foreseen (and often) unforeseen developments.

I first heard about video phones in 1969.  It was the A&T Bell Labs Picture Phone.  Of course, many critical things have changed since then – the technology, the infrastructure, and the mainstream cultural acceptance of technology in daily life, among other things.  Bottom line, I’ve heard about many more technologies that were going to change the world than actually did because the technology was not sound, supply chain problems arose, the market timing was off, funding was a problem, the solution was created in the absence of a problem, or the expected market never materialized. 

Ever heard of a mobile Internet device (MID)?  Yeah, a lot of other people haven’t either.

The Business Case for More Devices

There is an interesting dynamic going on in the battle between general and use-specific mobile devices: Which is better and for what purpose(s)?

A recent example is Apple’s iPad. After its announcement a few commentators questioned the effect it might have on Kindle sales. However, the issue is much broader than the iPad vs. the Kindle.

There are manufacturers building general-purpose netbooks, mobile Internet devices (MIDs), and smartphones. There are also companies and partnerships building branded devices and use-specific devices.

T-Mobile’s G3 Fender phone with Eric Clapton’s guitar app is great example of a branded device. Now imagine other smartphones, netbooks, or MIDs with branded Disney or Star Trek packaging that include pre-loaded, branded apps.

The Kindle is a great example of a use-specific device because it is designed to do one thing well: It allows people to download and read ebooks and other digital content.

Most of us own multiple general purpose devices – laptops, netbooks, and smartphones – even though they are capable of doing many of the same things. As general purpose devices, they are not optimized to do all things equally well, which is why use-specific devices exist.

Use-specific devices are designed to do one, a couple, or a few narrow things well, meaning that both the hardware and software have been optimized for a very narrow purpose or set of purposes. The funny thing about use-specific devices is that as soon as people figure out how to use them, they begin wondering what else they can do with them, or so said Jeff Orr, a senior research analyst at ABI Research in an interview I recently conducted with him on behalf of Intel. After all, general purpose and use-specific devices often share many of the same components like memory and microprocessors even though the screen sizes, input devices, and package designs may vary greatly.

The proliferation of devices begs the question, exactly how many devices does a person need? After talking with a number of industry analysts, hardware and software designers, it is clear there is no “right” answer because lifestyles, budgets, and user preferences differ.

Seeing all the possibilities from manufacturer, service provider, and software developer points of views is fascinating. The designers of both general purpose and use-specific devices have very logical arguments justifying why their product will be The Next Big Thing: use optimization vs. the all-in-one.

A startup I was advising recently experienced all this first-hand. The founders had a concept for an internet-connected portable media player which focused on one of the Internet’s killer apps: video. The product concept was as logical as the Kindle or a portable DVD player but the real question was, who will actually buy the thing? Yes, its screen size would be larger than a smartphone so it would be a better device for viewing video. Yes, it was lighter, more portable, and more convenient for viewing video than a netbook or laptop. But, would these benefits outweigh the cost and added bulk of Yet Another Device? Long story short, the product morphed into a unique service that was met with considerable enthusiasm by the same naysayers who shot down the original concept.

Is there room for general purpose and use-specific devices? Yes, but the market opportunities can vary greatly. As an example, ABI’s Orr estimated only 2 million ereaders have been sold worldwide while 35 million netbooks shipped in 2009 up from 15 million in 2008.

Despite the variance in potential market size, there are plans for new types of general purpose and use-specific devices emanating from all-too-familiar companies. Expect to see high-profile successes and failures in the next year or two. I, for one, am anxious to see how some of these devices will resonate with evolving consumer requirements and tastes.

Got an opinion about general purpose vs. use-specific devices? If so I’d love to hear it.